What does the future hold for cash? Interview with Euronet

Market changes and competition

Dear Mr. Walter, thank you for once again taking the time after the podcast to answer further questions about “The future of cash”.

Let’s dive into the first question. The trend of branch closures continued in 2024, reducing ATM availability. What are the implications of this trend and what does it mean for the positioning of banks and ATM operators? Are we witnessing a gradual abolition of cash?

The reduction of ATMs has just begun and will continue for years to come. High costs, increasing risks and staff shortages at banks and service providers will inevitably lead to a cutback in self-service locations and ATMs.

According to the Deutsche Bundesbank, the number of ATMs fell by 3,880 between the first half of 2022 and the first half of 2024. This corresponds to a decline of around 7% in three years.^[1] This decrease directly impacts banks, customers, the general population and ATM operators.

Banks are cutting their costs but at the same time losing their touchpoints with customers. Customers are deprived of an important service offered by their bank – the ability to withdraw cash. Similarly, cash withdrawal has become a challenge for the entire population in recent years due to the lack of ATMs in both rural areas and large cities. With banks pulling out, ATM operators now have an even greater responsibility: to fill the growing gaps in the supply of cash. This requires solutions such as new operator concepts and partnerships.

The decreasing number of ATMs does not mean that cash is being phased out. However, fewer ATMs make access to cash more difficult, which can lead to a reduction in the use of cash.

In other countries, such as Austria, cash withdrawals from ATMs are largely free of charge for end customers. Given rising operating costs, how sustainable do you consider this model?

The operation of ATMs incurs various costs such as technical maintenance, electricity, security and cash replenishment. In view of these rising costs, providing free cash withdrawals indefinitely may not be sustainable. To maintain the model of free cash provision, the question arises as to whether the (increasing) costs incurred can be offset by reducing the number of cash withdrawal points, i.e. by dismantling ATMs. The sensitive issue of fees cannot be entirely ruled out as a future measure to cover these rising costs.

In Germany, cash withdrawals at ATMs belonging to the customer’s own bank are often free. However, in view of rising operating costs and difficult conditions, banks are increasingly reconsidering their policies. In addition to reducing the number of ATMs, banks are also discussing fees for cash deposits and withdrawals.

The interchange fee must also be considered in the context of rising operating costs. Many banks and direct or online banks use Visa and Mastercard products to offer free cash withdrawals to their customers. Customers do not pay any fees when using ATMs owned by other banks or operators. Instead, Visa and Mastercard pay the interchange fee to ATM operators and banks for each transaction.

Interchange fees have tended to fall rather than rise in the past, but the costs of operating ATMs are increasing. We advocate for a reasonable adjustment of interchange fees to ensure that cash is widely available in the future and that customers of other institutions can use ATMs at a fair price.

How do you assess the adoption of digital payment solutions and the global evolution of cash usage and withdrawals? What factors are driving this trend?

Digital payment solutions are becoming increasingly popular because they are fast and easy to use. However, according to a study conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank, cash is still the most widely used payment method in Germany, accounting for 51% of all transactions.^[2]

There are many arguments in favor of cash:

• cash is widely accepted as a means of payment,
• it protects our privacy as no data is collected or stored and
• provides a good overview for managing the monthly budget.

The Bundesbank’s survey “How cash will be used in the future” shows that 93% of respondents would still like to have cash available as a means of payment even in 2037. This is a clear commitment to the preservation of cash.^[3]

These findings apply to the entire DACH region, according to a YouGov study. In 2025, 89% of the study participants stated that they would not switch to another bank if that bank failed to offer cash withdrawals. The results of the study are even clearer when compared to 2023. At that time, 85% insisted on the availability of an ATM.^[4]

The focus of bank customers and ATM users is therefore clearly on the possibility and option of withdrawing and depositing cash. We are concentrating precisely on these services and on ensuring a very high availability of ATMs. To this end, we are placing greater emphasis on investigating and establishing new cooperation models for the maintenance of ATMs.

From a global perspective, cash usage is driven by three main factors:

• Digital infrastructure: in regions with good Internet coverage, the use of digital payments is increasing.
• Social habits: cash remains an integral part of everyday life, albeit to varying degrees in different countries and regions, depending on social habits.
• Political decisions: governments are encouraging the transition to cashless payments. At the same time, however, we are also seeing regulations designed to protect cash. Even in the Scandinavian countries, where digital payments are widespread, banks are now required to provide more ATMs to ensure cash availability in times of crisis.
• The importance of different payment options: both consumers and governments are increasingly recognizing that cash is a fundamental means of payment, as it ensures the smooth functioning of the economy.

Security

Break-ins and ATM bombings are causing significant property damage in bank branches. (In 2023 alone, the damage resulting from explosions cost banks EUR 95 million. For every euro of cash stolen, two to three euros’ worth of infrastructure was damaged.) What measures and trends must be observed to ensure a secure cash supply?

Banks are investing huge sums to make their ATMs even more secure against attacks. The constant upgrading of equipment and new security measures is expensive and does not permanently solve the basic problem – attacks on ATMs or the cash inside them. There are two main approaches that could provide greater security:

1. Standardized security approaches: if all ATMs meet a uniform standard of protection and potential perpetrators know that blowing them up is unlikely to yield a worthwhile haul, this form of attack will lose its appeal.
2. Policy framework: it must be ensured that perpetrators cannot simply enter the country with explosives and leave unmolested after committing a serious crime.^[5]
3.  It is up to politicians to take stricter measures to prevent such acts.

Banks are currently being blamed for ATM attacks and accused of not allocating enough resources to ATM security. However, credit institutions have always invested heavily in ATM security, including robust safes, fogging systems, cash dyeing, alarm systems with direct links to police headquarters and private security services. Despite these measures, perpetrators are not deterred, as attacks on ATMs carry lenient penalties. It is criminals who try to break into ATMs, and they should be fought rather than turning ATMs – which already have a myriad of advanced security systems – into veritable bunkers.

Technological innovations and trends

The introduction of the digital euro and other regulatory changes will entail significant investment in technical infrastructure. How will this impact banks regarding the potential outsourcing or centralization of ATMs? Do you think it is conceivable or sensible for banks to outsource their entire ATM network to external service providers for maintenance?

Even today, operating ATMs independently is proving increasingly challenging for many banks. This raises the question of why each bank should continue to maintain its own fully serviced network. Countries like Switzerland, the UK and the Netherlands are already using or developing shared ATM networks.

Euronet’s approach is to provide nationwide ATMs accessible to all bank customers, creating synergies, reducing costs and easing the burden on banks, especially concerning upcoming investments.

Therefore, completely outsourcing ATM operations to specialized service providers is not only conceivable but a logical step.

Given the growing demands for technical modernization and investment security, external operation offers predictable costs, regulatory relief, and long-term stability. Euronet continually invests in upgrading its equipment fleet to ensure that regulatory requirements, such as new security standards and the processing of the upcoming Euro banknotes, are implemented reliably and on time.

The question is not whether a joint network will emerge in Germany, but when banks will be ready to take this step.

Finally, a glimpse into the crystal ball: artificial intelligence is a big topic right now. How do you see its role in the market environment in the next 3–5 years? Have you already identified specific use cases?

For ATM operators, artificial intelligence will play an important role behind the scenes, even if it does not significantly affect the direct operation of the machines themselves. One specific use case could be AI-based systems that enable service providers to detect ATM failures early by analyzing patterns and anomalies. This would allow spare parts to be automatically ordered and maintenance to be initiated well in advance of an actual breakdown, thereby improving machine availability.

AI could also be of help in the area of cash supply by identifying fluctuations in demand and incorporating them into cash planning to avoid shortages or surpluses. Overall, AI is expected to contribute to increasing operational efficiency and reliability and to reducing costs.

Conclusion on the future of cash supply

We have observed that the reduction in ATMs and branches is making access to cash more challenging, but this does not signify the end of cash.

On the contrary, recent studies show that the demand for cash remains high and that people will continue to want this option. While digital payments are growing in popularity, cash remains an essential part of our daily lives due to its acceptance, anonymity and clarity.

The industry must develop new cooperation models and operator concepts to ensure the future supply of cash. At the same time, technological innovations, such as AI and the digital euro, offer opportunities to improve efficiency and expand the product offerings.

Ultimately, cash and digital payments will coexist, with consumer freedom of choice at the forefront.