How relevant is business succession – in numbers?
The Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (institute for SME research) in Bonn has calculated that between 2022 and 2026, around 820,000 family businesses are due for succession as a result of the age or health-related retirement of their owners.
Taking into account the economic viability of the companies in order to find out how many of them can be deemed “worthy” of being taken over from a purely financial point of view, 190,000 companies remain.
Assuming conservatively that takeovers within the family have no or only low financing requirements, there will still be around 90,000 companies left within five years – this corresponds to around 18,000 companies per year in Germany.
Corporate banking: Derivation of company takeovers requiring financing
The average borrowing requirement for these 18,000 companies not transferred within the families can be estimated at about 60–70 percent of the purchase price. In addition to the earnings potential from financing these ventures – interest and commission for supporting the complex process including any structuring of the financing – the bank (as a rule) also maintains the existing customer relationship or gains a new one.
Banks should also bear in mind that the entrepreneurs handing over the business now have significant investment needs, thereby generating cross-selling opportunities in private banking.
zeb has developed a regionalized potential model to assess the earnings potential in the context of business successions according to region and company size, thus enabling a reliable planning basis for each institution.
 Cf. Fels et al. (2021)
 The following factors are taken into account: generation of an appropriate profit for the entrepreneur, the return on the equity capital employed and an imputed risk premium
 Assessment based on zeb expert assessment and previous project experience as well as Rosenbaum & Pearl (2013)